Bull Bear Forex measures the success of its signals by its directional success rate, i.e. in how many cases of all trade recommendations the price went into the suggested direction on each day.
Whether our analysis was a success is mostly based on the assessment until 1 p.m. London time.
When our trade recommendation has been successful, the forecast is closed at that time.
In case a signal has not been successful yet or lacked movement, but the stop has also not been triggered yet, we usually extend the validity of the signal until 4 p.m. London time.
Possible real-time updates overrule this practice.
Our overall average directional success rate for our daily and weekly calls across all asset classes was 78% in 2020 and 75% in 2021 as well as 2022.
Note that to achieve this, we never use a negative reward : risk ratio.
The yearly outperformers of all individual instruments reach on average 85%, while monthly they, at times, surpass clearly the 90% or, in some cases, even go up to the 100% level.
The yearly underperformers go down to around 65% on average, while monthly they can be at around 60% at times.